王晓斐

 

Editor’s note: This is the fourth in a series of posts by guest writer Ashkan Karbasfrooshan.Previously, he wrote about the State of Online Video, 12 Surprising Things Holding Back Online Video Advertising, and Context is King: How Videos Are Found And Consumed Online.  In part 4 today, he examines where he thinks the sweet spot is for making money in onljne video. Karbasfrooshan is the founder and CEO of WatchMojo.

In Search of Profits

Ten years ago, web companies didn’t generate much revenue.   These days, web companies are some of the most profitable around.  Online video is where the Web was ten years ago: in investment mode as video companies that are generating high revenue are not necessarily the most profitable.

Are those companies suffering low margins because they’re investing in the future or are they fundamentally lower-margin businesses?

Ad Networks Are Low Margin Businesses

This week, video ad network Brightroll raised $10 million from Scale Venture Partners.  Ad networks aggregate audiences and sell ads to marketers, sharing the proceeds with publishers/producers.  Scale’s Rob Theis’ argues: “the most strategic Internet investments are those that compete not with other Internet businesses, but with the much larger amount of money still being spent offline.”

Brightroll’s CEO Tod Sacerdoti added: “I think by this time next year the majority of the top five to ten video properties by any measure will be aggregator networks.  The best example for this is display advertising.”  Indeed, networks have an unmatched ability to scale but can also crash to the ground awfully fast.

The low margin is the least of their problems; differentiation and defensibility are.  Blue Lithium and Right Media hit jackpots by selling to Yahoo!  But those who didn’t sell (Tribal Fusion, Valueclick) suddenly found themselves under pressure from search advertising on performance and video on branding.

Content Networks Have Little Differentiation

Similarly, aggregators gather videos from content providers, sharing ad revenues.  iFilm (sold to Viacom, renamed Spike), Guba, Grouper (sold to SONY, renamed Crackle), Revver, YouTube (sold to Google), Veoh, DailyMotion, Metacafe, Viddler, blip.tv, are all vying for content, audiences and dollars.

YouTube is master of this domain.  Hulu is giving YouTube a run for its money, but the business model is anything but certain and its long term exit strategy is murky (Disney, News Corp. and NBC Universal/Comcast are shareholders but also competitors).

Ultimately, ad and content networks operate in a high-risk, winner-take-all game.   For publishers, it’s a lower risk world.  Consider the two acquisitions News Corp. made in 2005: Rupert Murdoch paid more for IGN ($650M) than for MySpace ($580 million), but MySpace’s subsequent growth made him look like a genius (for a while).  Today, MySpace is searching for its raison d’etre while IGN treks along as an unstoppable force in its sphere.

The Myth of Hyper Distribution?

In online video, producers are agnostic to distribution channel or platform.  To reduce risk, they diversify distribution, but the jury’s out on whether hyper distribution bears fruit.  Hyper distribution refers to syndicating one’s content as broadly as possible with little or no restrictions.

When it comes to generating revenues, is hyper-distribution wise?  Not according to Chris Pirillo, a prosumer video producer who leverages video to promote his empire but only counts YouTube as a commercial platform: “YouTube offers the largest audiences and generates most the revenue.  If you’re not YouTube, you have challenges in creating value for content producers”.  If that changes, look out for Freewheel, which according to CEO Doug Knopper allows “media companies and content owners to be able to monetize their video libraries across multiple channels and devices”.

Advertisers Follow Audiences…

Ex-Disney CEO Michael Eisner doesn’t pretend to know how the industry is going to play out, but he’s got no doubts what the end result will be: “I don’t know if the growth in content made for the Internet will be evolutionary or revolutionary, but it can’t not happen: a death march has been going on for other media who are in trouble because there is a more efficient way to share content around the world with the Internet.”

Business Models Take Time to Develop

Eisner made his fortune in television.  One VC who’s made his online has another opinion.  In Fred Wilson’s influential 2005 post “The Future of Media (aka Please Take My RSS Feed)”, he suggests to:

1 – Microchunk it – Reduce the content to its simplest form.
2 – Free it – Put it out there without walls around it or strings on it.
3 – Syndicate it – Let anyone take it and run with it.
4 – Monetize it – Put the monetization and tracking systems into the microchunk.

In theory, in the future when video streams monetize the way search queries have (whereby a search query is always associated with some kind of paid listing) then perhaps Wilson’s thesis will prove right.  But in practice, at least in the five years that have passed since the post, it’s been a recipe for financial disaster.

Hyper distribution is great for promotional purposes but not necessarily for commercial purposes.  Marketers do pay more attention as an audience grows, but they also pay a premium for scarcity and exclusivity.

This is the fundamental conundrum facing new media producers who rely on hyper-distribution to build brands and audiences but who weaken their pricing power and ability to secure guaranteed dollars by giving away their videos.  This can work if you can build ad-supported businesses, but that takes time and money.

Today, a few new media producers have managed to build ad-supported businesses, namely Revision3 and Next New Networks.  But between the two, they have raised over $30 million in venture capital.  Most producers don’t have that luxury.  For those others, I recommend creating content that other media companies will pay for, to buy them enough time to build a syndication business and eventually, a fully ad-supported business which commands the large ad dollars.

An imperfect but useful analogy I use is the banking model, where retail, corporate and investment banking fees can create a large business.

This diversified strategy provides:

• a safe income stream:  licensing, like retail banking, provides a recurring and non-volatile revenue base.
• a growth business: syndication, like corporate banking, requires other companies in the ecosystem to do well.  This can provide higher CPM rates by placing content in the right context.
• a wildly lucrative stream: advertising, like investment banking, takes time to develop, is speculative and seasonal, and risks drying up abruptly.  Notice how advertising revenue spikes each fourth quarter, for example.

The reason why I place content producers in the highest Profitability circle over time  in the first chart above is because only they can build such a business.  (The Profitability Index represented in the chart takes into account operating margins and total return on investment, including likelihood of a liquidity event).  And, yes, I am completely biased, since this is the kind of business I am trying to build with WatchMojo.  Aggregators and networks are solely advertising based businesses; just ask YouTube who generated $10,000 in a paid model test, even though it can generate billions in simpler ways.  Video advertising will be a bigger business, but not necessarily a higher-margin business.

Video will be Everywhere: on all Websites

Video on the Web is no longer just about entertainment.  It is also about marketing, instruction, and conveying information of all kinds.

• Content bellwether Wikipedia announced it will be rolling out videos soon enough.
• e-Commerce leader Zappos encourages users to submit their video experiences which increase sales 6% to 30%.  In 2010, it will create 50,000 videos.
• It won’t be long before organizations feature their accountants, lawyers, management, VCs in videos too.

Video will be Everywhere: in Ads

Videos won’t simply be on all websites; video ads will converge with rich media and display banners.  Publishers and ad networks will swap out low yield ad placements for videos that sell at a premium.  Rupert Murdoch is right to say that there isn’t enough advertising to make all publishing online profitable, but if you insert a video-enabled ad where a display banner exists today, maybe it will become more profitable, as video rates tend to generate a tenfold premium over display banners.  Of course, the flip side of that argument is that if video ad inventory lost all scarcity as display banners have, then it rates would also see a steep drop.

Video is the Anti-Search

Google’s dominance of the Web today stems from a perfect storm.  Search benefitted from low expectations.   Whereas Google’s competitors threw in the towel to focus on portaldom (or outright handed them the business), online video companies’ war chests seemingly have no bottom as they wage the war for the online audience.

With YouTube being a unit of Google, it’s hard to compete being a pure video aggregator.  Those who have tried are flailing badly.  Yet video’s expectations have always been high and will only get higher.

History Repeats Itself

Video will follow search in two ways though.

Search is software and Google is the only successful ad-supported technology company.  Video is media, which has a natural disposition to embrace ad-supported models.  As such, advertising will monetize video streams.  In fact, as large ad agencies and marketers shift online, they’ll embrace branding campaigns and push video advertising could eventually top search advertising.  Once that starts, online advertising will surpass television, it’s already happened in the UK.

Search for The Leading Ad Format

Everyone agrees that video advertising will be huge but what will the prevailing ad format be?

Stakeholders are obsessed with finding the ad format likely to follow television’s 30-second ad spot and search’s paid listings.

What might lead the way?

Pre-rolls are the equivalent of pop-ups (and mid/post rolls the equivalent of pop-unders) in that users hate them, but unlike pop-ups, I actually think pre-rolls won’t disappear, mainly because

• They’re the most in-demand ad format (according to Brightroll CEO Tod Sacerdoti)
• It is easier to include a pre-roll when you’re syndicating to other websites and platforms (says blip.tv co-founder Dina Kaplan)
• But largely because they’ll get more user-friendly: the 30-second ad will make way for 5-10 second interactive pre-rolls (SpotXchange CEO Michael Shehan).

However, there will always be properties which will forego pre-roll revenue to improve the user experience in order to build audiences, and all else being equal users will migrate to those sites.  So I’m not sure the pre-roll will remain all that ubiquitous.  The other problem with pre-rolls is lack of attention.  When a pre-roll starts, I tune out and look for my headphones or go grab a coffee.

That’s why I like the contextual display banner (and not necessarily the companion banner).  A companion banner comes bundled with the video pre-roll, but sits alongside the video  A contextual banner comes without the pre-roll.  Whereas most banners disappear quickly next to text with one downward scroll of the mouse, alongside a video player, that banner becomes quite valuable and top-of-mind since people are just staring at the video.

We’ve also seen the rise (and fall) of overlays, which is basically an expanded Picture-in-Picture (PIP) format; we know how that fared.

Of course, content producers are also salivating over branded content (more than product integration and product placement, the brand becomes central to the story) or outright sponsorships.

Finally, there’s the Web’s favorite offspring: the viral video.  Viral video is not an ad format, of course, but it is not quite branded content nor is it supported by ads.  As these become more common, achieving success with content alone becomes a sure-fire recipe for failure.  All content will need to be supported by a media buy or some kind of promotional push.  After all, on TV you spend millions creating an ad but you need to buy media spots to promote it.  It’s not going to be that different online.  Yes, it’s a meritocracy, but it’s a loud, cluttered one.

KISS: Keep It Simple Stupid

There won’t be a single dominant ad format but the holy grail will prove simpler than expected.  It always does.

Remember Don Lapre’s infomercials?  He would go on and on about placing “Tiny Classified Ads” in newspapers.  I never thought much of those ads until Google’s adoption of (essentially) little text ads next to search results led to their explosive growth.

Sometimes in business, the solution is simpler than you can imagine.

由于社交网站的兴起，社交网络研究过去几年也有许多令人惊讶的发现。与1980年代的“小世界网络”不同（多数节点彼此不连接，但可在几步内实现接触），现代网络中的个人是随机的、不受任何规则管制的连接形成网络。在一项新的研究中，波士顿大学的研究人员分析了谁才是社交网络中最佳的信息传播源（预印本）。

他们观察网络中谁起着枢纽作用，即他比其他人获得更多连接，因此在传播信息或病毒中起着重要的推波助澜作用。他们的发现与常识并不一致。也许你会认为社交网络中的名人显然受到最大的关注，那么他或她在信息传播中的影响力显然也更大。其实不然，信息的最重要传播者不是受人簇拥的骄子，而是网络中的边缘人物。

原文地址：http://science.solidot.org/article.pl?sid=10/02/03/090202&from=rss

原文地址：http://sixrevisions.com/resources/the-history-of-the-internet-in-a-nutshell/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%2BSixRevisions%2B%28Six%2BRevisions%29&utm_content=Google%2BReader

If you’re reading this article, it’s likely that you spend a fair amount of time online. However, considering how much of an influence the Internet has in our daily lives, how many of us actually know the story of how it got its start?

Here’s a brief history of the Internet, including important dates, people, projects, sites, and other information that should give you at least a partial picture of what this thing we call the Internet really is, and where it came from.

While the complete history of the Internet could easily fill a few books, this article should familiarize you with key milestones and events related to the growth and evolution of the Internet between 1969 to 2009.

1969: Arpanet

Arpanet was the first real network to run on packet switching technology (new at the time). On the October 29, 1969, computers at Stanford and UCLA connected for the first time. In effect, they were the first hosts on what would one day become the Internet.

The first message sent across the network was supposed to be “Login”, but reportedly, the link between the two colleges crashed on the letter “g”.

1969: Unix

Another major milestone during the 60’s was the inception of Unix: the operating system whose design heavily influenced that of Linux and FreeBSD (the operating systems most popular in today’s web servers/web hosting services).

1970: Arpanet network

An Arpanet network was established between Harvard, MIT, and BBN (the company that created the “interface message processor” computers used to connect to the network) in 1970.

1971: Email

Email was first developed in 1971 by Ray Tomlinson, who also made the decision to use the “@” symbol to separate the user name from the computer name (which later on became the domain name).

1971: Project Gutenberg and eBooks

One of the most impressive developments of 1971 was the start of Project Gutenberg. Project Gutenberg, for those unfamiliar with the site, is a global effort to make books and documents in the public domain available electronically–for free–in a variety of eBook and electronic formats.

It began when Michael Hart gained access to a large block of computing time and came to the realization that the future of computers wasn’t in computing itself, but in the storage, retrieval and searching of information that, at the time, was only contained in libraries. He manually typed (no OCR at the time) the “Declaration of Independence” and launched Project Gutenberg to make information contained in books widely available in electronic form. In effect, this was the birth of the eBook.

1972: CYCLADES

France began its own Arpanet-like project in 1972, called CYCLADES. While Cyclades was eventually shut down, it did pioneer a key idea: the host computer should be responsible for data transmission rather than the network itself.

1973: The first trans-Atlantic connection and the popularity of emailing

Arpanet made its first trans-Atlantic connection in 1973, with the University College of London. During the same year, email accounted for 75% of all Arpanet network activity.

1974: The beginning of TCP/IP

1974 was a breakthrough year. A proposal was published to link Arpa-like networks together into a so-called “inter-network”, which would have no central control and would work around a transmission control protocol (which eventually became TCP/IP).

1975: The email client

With the popularity of emailing, the first modern email program was developed by John Vittal, a programmer at the University of Southern California in 1975. The biggest technological advance this program (called MSG) made was the addition of “Reply” and “Forward” functionality.

1977: The PC modem

1977 was a big year for the development of the Internet as we know it today. It’s the year the first PC modem, developed by Dennis Hayes and Dale Heatherington, was introduced and initially sold to computer hobbyists.

1978: The Bulletin Board System (BBS)

The first bulletin board system (BBS) was developed during a blizzard in Chicago in 1978.

1978: Spam is born

1978 is also the year that brought the first unsolicited commercial email message (later known as spam), sent out to 600 California Arpanet users by Gary Thuerk.

1979: MUD – The earliest form of multiplayer games

The precursor to World of Warcraft and Second Life was developed in 1979, and was called MUD (short for MultiUser Dungeon). MUDs were entirely text-based virtual worlds, combining elements of role-playing games, interactive, fiction, and online chat.

1979: Usenet

1979 also ushered into the scene: Usenet, created by two graduate students. Usenet was an internet-based discussion system, allowing people from around the globe to converse about the same topics by posting public messages categorized by newsgroups.

1980: ENQUIRE software

The European Organization for Nuclear Research (better known as CERN) launched ENQUIRE (written by Tim Berners-Lee), a hypertext program that allowed scientists at the particle physics lab to keep track of people, software, and projects using hypertext (hyperlinks).

1982: The first emoticon

While many people credit Kevin MacKenzie with the invention of the emoticon in 1979, it was Scott Fahlman in 1982 who proposed using after a joke, rather than the original -) proposed by MacKenzie. The modern emoticon was born.

1983: Arpanet computers switch over to TCP/IP

January 1, 1983 was the deadline for Arpanet computers to switch over to the TCP/IP protocols developed by Vinton Cerf. A few hundred computers were affected by the switch. The name server was also developed in ‘83.

1984: Domain Name System (DNS)

The domain name system was created in 1984 along with the first Domain Name Servers (DNS). The domain name system was important in that it made addresses on the Internet more human-friendly compared to its numerical IP address counterparts. DNS servers allowed Internet users to type in an easy-to-remember domain name and then converted it to the IP address automatically.

1985: Virtual communities

1985 brought the development of The WELL (short for Whole Earth ‘Lectronic Link), one of the oldest virtual communities still in operation. It was developed by Stewart Brand and Larry Brilliant in February of ‘85. It started out as a community of the readers and writers of the Whole Earth Review and was an open but “remarkably literate and uninhibited intellectual gathering”. Wired Magazine once called The Well “The most influential online community in the world.”

1986: Protocol wars

The so-called Protocol wars began in 1986. European countries at that time were pursuing the Open Systems Interconnection (OSI), while the United States was using the Internet/Arpanet protocol, which eventually won out.

1987: The Internet grows

By 1987, there were nearly 30,000 hosts on the Internet. The original Arpanet protocol had been limited to 1,000 hosts, but the adoption of the TCP/IP standard made larger numbers of hosts possible.

1988: IRC – Internet Relay Chat

Also in 1988, Internet Relay Chat (IRC) was first deployed, paving the way for real-time chat and the instant messaging programs we use today.

1988: First major malicious internet-based attack

One of the first major Internet worms was released in 1988. Referred to as “The Morris Worm”, it was written by Robert Tappan Morris and caused major interruptions across large parts of the Internet.

1989: AOL is launched

When Apple pulled out of the AppleLink program in 1989, the project was renamed and America Online was born. AOL, still in existence today, later on made the Internet popular amongst the average internet users.

1989: The proposal for the World Wide Web

1989 also brought about the proposal for the World Wide Web, written by Tim Berners-Lee. It was originally published in the March issue of MacWorld, and then redistributed in May 1990. It was written to persuade CERN that a global hypertext system was in CERN’s best interest. It was originally called “Mesh”; the term “World Wide Web” was coined while Berners-Lee was writing the code in 1990.

1990: First commercial dial-up ISP

1990 also brought about the first commercial dial-up Internet provider, The World. The same year, Arpanet ceased to exist.

1990: World Wide Web protocols finished

The code for the World Wide Web was written by Tim Berners-Lee, based on his proposal from the year before, along with the standards for HTML, HTTP, and URLs.

1991: First web page created

1991 brought some major innovations to the world of the Internet. The first web page was created and, much like the first email explained what email was, its purpose was to explain what the World Wide Web was.

1991: First content-based search protocol

Also in the same year, the first search protocol that examined file contents instead of just file names was launched, called Gopher.

1991: MP3 becomes a standard

Also, the MP3 file format was accepted as a standard in 1991. MP3 files, being highly compressed, later become a popular file format to share songs and entire albums via the internet.

1991: The first webcam

One of the more interesting developments of this era, though, was the first webcam. It was deployed at a Cambridge University computer lab, and its sole purpose was to monitor a particular coffee maker so that lab users could avoid wasted trips to an empty coffee pot.

1993: Mosaic – first graphical web browser for the general public

The first widely downloaded Internet browser, Mosaic, was released in 1993. While Mosaic wasn’t the first web browser, it is considered the first browser to make the Internet easily accessible to non-techies.

1993: Governments join in on the fun

In 1993, both the White House and the United Nations came online, marking the beginning of the .gov and .org domain names.

1994: Netscape Navigator

Mosaic’s first big competitor, Netscape Navigator, was released the year following (1994).

1995: Commercialization of the internet

1995 is often considered the first year the web became commercialized. While there were commercial enterprises online prior to ‘95, there were a few key developments that happened that year. First, SSL (Secure Sockets Layer) encryption was developed by Netscape, making it safer to conduct financial transactions (like credit card payments) online.

In addition, two major online businesses got their start the same year. The first sale on “Echo Bay” was made that year. Echo Bay later became eBay. Amazon.com also started in 1995, though it didn’t turn a profit for six years, until 2001.

1995: Geocities, the Vatican goes online, and JavaScript

Other major developments that year included the launch of Geocities (which officially closed down on October 26, 2009).

The Vatican also went online for the first time.

Java and JavaScript (originally called LiveScript by its creator, Brendan Eich, and deployed as part of the Netscape Navigator browser – see comments for explanation) was first introduced to the public in 1995. ActiveX was launched by Microsoft the following year.

1996: First web-based (webmail) service

In 1996, HoTMaiL (the capitalized letters are an homage to HTML), the first webmail service, was launched.

1997: The term “weblog” is coined

While the first blogs had been around for a few years in one form or another, 1997 was the first year the term “weblog” was used.

1998: First new story to be broken online instead of traditional media

In 1998, the first major news story to be broken online was the Bill Clinton/Monica Lewinsky scandal (also referred to as “Monicagate” among other nicknames), which was posted on The Drudge Report after Newsweek killed the story.

1998: Google!

Google went live in 1998, revolutionizing the way in which people find information online.

1998: Internet-based file-sharing gets its roots

In 1998 as well, Napster launched, opening up the gates to mainstream file-sharing of audio files over the internet.

1999: SETI@home project

1999 is the year when one of the more interesting projects ever brought online: the SETI@home project, launched. The project has created the equivalent of a giant supercomputer by harnessing the computing power of more than 3 million computers worldwide, using their processors whenever the screensaver comes on, indicating that the computer is idle. The program analyzes radio telescope data to look for signs of extraterrestrial intelligence.

2000: The bubble bursts

2000 was the year of the dotcom collapse, resulting in huge losses for legions of investors. Hundreds of companies closed, some of which had never turned a profit for their investors. The NASDAQ, which listed a large number of tech companies affected by the bubble, peaked at over 5,000, then lost 10% of its value in a single day, and finally hit bottom in October of 2002.

2001: Wikipedia is launched

With the dotcom collapse still going strong, Wikipedia launched in 2001, one of the websites that paved the way for collective web content generation/social media.

2003: VoIP goes mainstream

In 2003: Skype is released to the public, giving a user-friendly interface to Voice over IP calling.

2003: MySpace becomes the most popular social network

Also in 2003, MySpace opens up its doors. It later grew to be the most popular social network at one time (thought it has since been overtaken by Facebook).

2003: CAN-SPAM Act puts a lid on unsolicited emails

Another major advance in 2003 was the signing of the Controlling the Assault of Non-Solicited Pornography and Marketing Act of 2003, better known as the CAN-SPAM Act.

2004: Web 2.0

Though coined in 1999 by Darcy DiNucci, the term “Web 2.0″, referring to websites and Rich Internet Applications (RIA) that are highly interactive and user-driven became popular around 2004. During the first Web 2.0 conference, John Batelle and Tim O’Reilly described the concept of “the Web as a Platform“: software applications built to take advantage of internet connectivity, moving away from the desktop (which has downsides such as operating system dependency and lack of interoperability).

2004: Social Media and Digg

The term “social media”, believed to be first used by Chris Sharpley, was coined in the same year that “Web 2.0″ became a mainstream concept. Social media–sites and web applications that allow its users to create and share content and to connect with one another–started around this period.

Digg, a social news site, launched on November of 2004, paving the way for sites such as Reddit, Mixx, and Yahoo! Buzz. Digg revolutionized traditional means of generating and finding web content, democratically promoting news and web links that are reviewed and voted on by a community.

2004: “The” Facebook open to college students

Facebook launched in 2004, though at the time it was only open to college students and was called “The Facebook”; later on, “The” was dropped from the name, though the URL http://www.thefacebook.com still works.

2005: YouTube – streaming video for the masses

YouTube launched in 2005, bringing free online video hosting and sharing to the masses.

2006: Twitter gets twittering

Twitter launched in 2006. It was originally going to be called twittr (inspired by Flickr); the first Twitter message was “just setting up my twttr”.

2007: Major move to place TV shows online

Hulu was first launched in 2007, a joint venture between ABC, NBC, and Fox to make popular TV shows available to watch online.

2007: The iPhone and the Mobile Web

The biggest innovation of 2007 was almost certainly the iPhone, which was almost wholly responsible for renewed interest in mobile web applications and design.

2008: “Internet Election”

The first “Internet election” took place in 2008 with the U.S. Presidential election. It was the first year that national candidates took full advantage of all the Internet had to offer. Hillary Clinton jumped on board early with YouTube campaign videos. Virtually every candidate had a Facebook page or a Twitter feed, or both.

Ron Paul set a new fundraising record by raising $4.3 million in a single day through online donations, and then beat his own record only weeks later by raising $4.4 million in a single day.

The 2008 elections placed the Internet squarely at the forefront of politics and campaigning, a trend that is unlikely to change any time in the near future.

2009: ICANN policy changes

2009 brought about one of the biggest changes to come to the Internet in a long time when the U.S. relaxed its control over ICANN, the official naming body of the Internet (they’re the organization in charge of registering domain names).

The Future?

Where is the future of the Internet headed? Share your opinions in the comments section.

Sources and Further Reading

• A People’s History of the Internet: from Arpanet in 1969 to Today: A timeline of the Internet from guardian.co.uk.
• History of the Internet: An early timeline of the Internet, from precursors in the 1800s up through 1997.
• A Brief History of the Web: A series of videos from Microsoft to celebrate the launch of Internet Explorer 8.
• The History of the Internet – Tim Berners-Lee: A brief history of major developments associated with the Internet from About.com.
• Hobbes’ Internet Timeline – the definitive ARPAnet & Internet History: A very thorough timeline of the Internet, starting in 1957 and going up through 2004, with tons of statistics and source material included.
• Internet Timeline: A basic timeline of Internet history from FactMonster.com.

Related Content

• The History of Web Browsers
• Popular Search Engines in the 90’s: Then and Now
• 10 Revealing Infographics about the Web
• Related categories: Web Development and Infographics

About the Author

Cameron Chapman is a professional web and graphic designer with over 6 years of experience in the industry. She’s also written for numerous blogs such as Smashing Magazine and Mashable. You can find her personal web presence at Cameron Chapman On Writing. If you’d like to connect with her, check her out on Twitter.

Over the past three years, we have tracked the rising adoption of Web 2.0 technologies, as well as the ways organizations are using them. This year, we sought to get a clear idea of whether companies are deriving measurable business benefits from their investments in the Web. Our findings indicate that they are.

Nearly 1,700 executives from around the world, across a range of industries and functional areas, responded to this year’s survey.1 We asked them about the value they have realized from their Web 2.0 deployments in three main areas: within their organizations; externally, in their relations with customers; and in their dealings with suppliers, partners, and outside experts.

Their responses suggest why Web 2.0 remains of high interest: 69 percent of respondents report that their companies have gained measurable business benefits, including more innovative products and services, more effective marketing, better access to knowledge, lower cost of doing business, and higher revenues. Companies that made greater use of the technologies, the results show, report even greater benefits. We also looked closely at the factors driving these improvements—for example, the types of technologies companies are using, management practices that produce benefits, and any organizational and cultural characteristics that may contribute to the gains. We found that successful companies not only tightly integrate Web 2.0 technologies with the work flows of their employees but also create a “networked company,” linking themselves with customers and suppliers through the use of Web 2.0 tools. Despite the current recession, respondents overwhelmingly say that they will continue to invest in Web 2.0.

Benefits of Web 2.0

Web 2.0 technologies can be a powerful lure for an organization; their interactivity promises to bring more employees into daily contact at lower cost. When used effectively, they also may encourage participation in projects and idea sharing, thus deepening a company’s pool of knowledge. They may bring greater scope and scale to organizations as well, strengthening bonds with customers and improving communications with suppliers and outside partners.

This year’s survey turned up strong evidence that these advantages are translating into measurable business gains. When we asked respondents about the business benefits their companies have gained as a result of using Web 2.0 technologies, they most often report greater ability to share ideas; improved access to knowledge experts; and reduced costs of communications, travel, and operations. Many respondents also say Web 2.0 tools have decreased the time to market for products and have had the effect of improving employee satisfaction.

Looking beyond company borders, significant benefits have stemmed from better interactions with organizations and customers. The ability to forge closer ties has increased customers’ awareness and consideration of companies’ products and has improved customer satisfaction. Respondents also say they have been able to burnish their innovation skills, perhaps because their companies and customers jointly shape and cocreate products using Web 2.0 connections. Some respondents report that these customer interactions have resulted in measurable increases in revenues.

Respondents cite similar gains resulting from better ties to suppliers and partners. Highest on that list of benefits is the ability to gain access to expertise outside company walls more quickly. These respondents also cite lower costs of communication with business partners and lower travel costs.

We also asked respondents to specify the percentage improvement they experienced for each reported benefit across all three benefit classes. The median level of gains derived from internal Web 2.0 use ranged from a 10 percent improvement in operational costs to a 30 percent increase in the speed at which employees are able to tap outside experts.

How companies are using Web 2.0

Web 2.0 delivers benefits by multiplying the opportunities for collaboration and by allowing knowledge to spread more effectively. These benefits can accrue through companies’ use of automatic information feeds such as RSS2 or microblogs, of which Twitter is the most popular manifestation. Although many companies use a mix of tools, the survey shows that among all respondents deriving benefits, the more heavily used technologies are blogs, wikis, and podcasts—the same tools that are popular among consumers.

Among respondents who report seeing benefits within their companies, many cite blogs, RSS, and social networks as important means of exchanging knowledge. These networks often help companies coalesce affinity groups internally. Finally, respondents report using Web videos more frequently since the previous survey; technology improvements have made videos easier to produce and disseminate within organizations.

Respondents who report that Web technologies have strengthened their companies’ links to customers also cite blogs and social networks as important. Both allow companies to distribute product information more readily and, perhaps more critically, they invite customer feedback and even participation in the creation of products.

Similarly, among those capturing benefits in their dealings with suppliers and partners, the tools of choice again are blogs, social networks, and video sharing. While respondents tell us that tapping expert knowledge from outside is their top priority, few report deploying prediction markets to harvest collective insights from these external networks.

Who benefits
Regardless of industry, executives at companies that use more Web 2.0 technologies also report greater benefits. Comparing respondents’ industries, those at high-technology companies are most likely to report measurable benefits from Web 2.0 across the board, followed by those at companies offering business, legal, and professional services. Companies with revenues exceeding $1 billion—along with business-to-business organizations—are more likely to report benefits than are smaller companies or consumer companies. Among functions, respondents in information technology, business development, and sales and marketing are more likely to report seeing benefits at various levels than are those in finance or purchasing. IT executives, in general, are more focused on using Web tools to achieve internal improvements, while business development and sales functions often rely on the technologies to deliver better insights into markets or to interact with consumers.

Regionally, respondents in North America and India are most likely to claim that they are reaping benefits from their companies’ use of Web 2.0. These respondents also report higher levels of technology usage in general. Respondents in North America and China report the highest customer benefits. Those from India and China, meanwhile, are more likely to report benefits flowing from their interactions with customers and partners.

The networked company

These survey results indicate that a different type of company may be emerging—one that makes intensive use of interactive technologies. This networked organization is characterized both by the internal integration of Web tools among employees, as well as use of the technologies to strengthen company ties with external stakeholders—customers and business partners.

As such, companies reporting business benefits also report high levels of Web 2.0 integration into employee workflows. They most often deploy three or more Web tools, and usage is high throughout these organizations.

Half of respondents report that Web 2.0 technologies have fostered in-company interactions across geographic borders; 45 percent cite interactions across functions, and 39 percent across business units.

This integrated internal use of Web 2.0 is also the model for interactivity outside the company. The survey results suggest that networked organizations have created processes and Web platforms that serve to manage significant portions of these external ties. Respondents reporting measurable benefits say their companies, on average, have Web 2.0 interactions with 35 percent of their customers. These companies forged similar Web ties to 48 percent of their suppliers, partners, and outside experts. An organizational structure that’s more porous and networked may make companies more resilient and adaptive, sharpening their ability to access knowledge and thus innovate more effectively.

Managing adoption

Many companies experiment with Web 2.0 technologies, but creating an environment with a critical mass of committed users is more difficult.3 The survey results confirm that successful adoption requires that the use of these tools be integrated into the flow of users’ work. Furthermore, encouraging continuing use requires approaches other than the traditional financial or performance incentives deployed as motivational tools. In the Web community, status is often built on a reputation for making meaningful contributions. Respondents say informal incentives incorporating the Web ethos, such as ratings by peers and online recognition of status, have been most effective in encouraging Web 2.0 adoption. They also say role modeling—active Web use by executives—has been important for encouraging adoption internally.

Looking ahead

· Web 2.0 use by companies seems to be developing hardy roots. Over half of the companies in this year’s survey plan to increase their investments in Web 2.0 technologies, while another quarter expect to maintain investments at current levels.

· Among respondents whose companies have gained measurable business benefits from Web 2.0, the current downturn has increased interest in the technologies, presumably because companies count on extending their gains.

· Across three major usage categories (internal, customer, and partner/supplier), about a third of all respondents have not yet achieved business benefits, either because they aren’t using Web 2.0 for one of those purposes or because they have yet to learn how to achieve measurable benefits with the tools they are using. Yet satisfaction with Web 2.0 is high among all users. This suggests that Web 2.0 has plenty of room to grow as more companies strive to capture benefits.

我们假设人类生命被分为3大块：

1. 维持生命体征（睡觉、吃饭等）
2. 获得生命延续的成本（学习、工作等）
3. 调节生命的娱乐

 

Microsoft在E3上的PROJECT NATAl，实在令我对那1/3的人生充满了期待和惊喜。

PROJECT NATAl让我们领略了，在不久的将来（可能就是2010年年头），人类的游戏方式，或者说：由于人机对话方式的大突破，游戏将完全摆脱遥感，手杆或者其他一切输入工具以便控制那个与你一屏之隔存在在虚拟世界里的你的行为，甚至是谈话和传递，当然除了一些学习工具如乐器以外。

2006年移动无处不在，2007年google的云计算成为了现实，2008年wii大热。今天，xbox360即将改变占据我们1/3人生时间中的一切运行法则。

等等还不止这些。。。

现在，让我们大胆的梳理一下这些年的技术革新，以及大胆的预测下这些技术将怎么改变未来：

1. 未来的游戏将不再使用光盘或者任何其他像如今插入游戏客户终端的存储设备，一切的游戏运行都将在服务器端，而用户只需面对一个屏幕进行选择，然后发疯。
2. 虚拟社区（vital communities）及其周边配套环境（商务，移动等）的完善，人类单纯基于工作的出行将锐减（为什么不？请统计一下你现在公司的网络电话会议就能知道，评判一个公司的全球化程度只要统计她的网络会议就能知道，而且这还反映公司的公益化程度）。也就是说：地球上人类基于工作的大规模移动（或者称为迁移）将减少，这也就意味着飞机的碳排放量将可能减少，但也有可能增加。因为，请接着看第3条
3. 当人类从工作中解脱出来之后，除了维持生命体征的行为之余，就是娱乐。而到不同的时空去现场体验不同的生活方式的这种娱乐方式，将成为一种不可替代和阻挡的大生意，例如：旅游。所以在使用交通工具的总量上仍旧会较多。
4. 随着娱乐对我们人生时间的吞噬，“内容为王”将不可改变的成功法则。为全球用户提供完全差异性的娱乐内容才是成功的基石和核心。
5. 互联网、Google的云计算和netbook好像100年前的输变电网络、高压变电以及家用电器。未来最激烈的市场将是“终端”市场，更大胆一点是“屏幕的市场”，我称之为“移动门”的市场，使用一个娱乐产品就像打开一扇通向虚拟世界的门，屏幕就是门而娱乐的产品或者服务绝不会在本地，PC时代将终结，OS系统将完全没落。你现在还会使用油灯吗？
6. 请再次关注第5条，如果我们依旧承认：成功的背后除了技术以外更为关键的是经济和商业的话。即我们对一下的论调达成了共识：运作全球资源的不是国家，政治，而是全球化了的经济体。包裹着商业利益的价值观才是推动世界正向运作的强大力量。当“内容”资源完全“云计算”了之后，用户消费娱乐产品或服务将好像在开门之前花钱购买钥匙一般简单，这就是未来的付费娱乐。当下个人化的硬盘，USB存储设备等等都将成为历史。因为，未来你所接触的终端就是一块屏幕，一扇门。跨过着扇门你将拥有一切。所有的内容都在被网络连接的服务器上，请注意，这些内容数据还不只是在一台机器上，而是可能散布在成千上万台服务器上，甚至在月球上。因为那里有天然的冷却环境，而成千上万台服务器在一起工作时最大的消耗就是驱动机器和冷却机器的电力。google的做法是把机房安装在水坝下，以达到了冷却的目的，又完成了环保。
7. 忘了，既然是“移动门”的世界，除了“门”还有就是“移动”。你的移动设备将完成下列功能的统一：
   
   
   
   • 扫描：不只是物体，而是“扫描+启动”把你扫描入虚拟世界，启动那个世界中的你，以便相应虚拟社区中的其他人物交流；
   • 投影：投影一切影响，包括电影+虚拟人物

    

    

8. 待续

 

 

wangxiaofiecn@hotmail.com

 

Project Natal利用infrared camera及video camera去监测玩家的行动，infrared camera用以测量深度(depth)，video camera则用来侦察动作(Movement)，效果令人相当满意。 Project Natal的动作感及活动性甚佳，相信同类竞争对手wii将会受到威胁。

 

Man is God.

He is everywhere, he is anybody, he knows everything.

This is the Prometeus new world.

All started with the Media Revolution, with Internet, at the end of the last century.

Everything related to the old media vanished: Gutenberg, the copyright, the radio, the television, the publicity.

The old world reacts: more restrictions for the copyright, new laws against non authorized copies. Napster, the music peer to peer company is sued.

At the same time, free internet radio appears;TIVO, the internet television, allows to avoid publicity; the Wall Street Journal goes on line; Google launches Google news.

Millions of people read daily the biggest on line newspaper. Ohmynews written by thousands of journalists; Flickr becomes the biggest repository in the history of photos, YouTube for movies.

The power of the masses.

A new figure emerges: the prosumer, a producer and a consumer of information. Anyone can be a prosumer.

The news channels become available on Internet.

The blogs become more influential than the old media.

The newspapers are released for free.

Wikipedia is the most complete encyclopedia ever.

In 2007 Life magazine closes.

The NYT sells its television and declares that the future is digital. BBC follows.

In the main cities of the world people are connected for free.

At the corners of the streets totems print pages from blogs and digital magazines.

The virtual worlds are common places on the Internet for millions of people.

A person can have multiple on line identities.

Second Life launches the vocal avatar.

The old media fight back.

A tax is added on any screen; newspapers, radios and televisions are financed by the State; illegal download from the web is punished with years of jail.

Around 2011 the tipping point is reached: the publicity investments are done on the Net. The electronic paper is a mass product: anyone can read anything on plastic paper.

In 2015 newspapers and broadcasting television disappear, digital terrestrial is abandoned, the radio goes on the Internet.

The media arena is less and less populated. Only the Tyrannosaurus Rex survives. The Net includes and unifies all the content. Google buys Microsoft. Amazon buys Yahoo! and become the world universal content leaders with BBC, CNN and CCTV.

The concept of static information - books, articles, images - changes and is transformed into knowledge flow.

The publicity is chosen by the content creators, by the authors and becomes information, comparison, experience.

In 2020 Lawrence Lessig, the author of ‘Free Culture’, is the new US Secretary of Justice and declares the copyright illegal.

Devices that replicate the five senses are available in the virtual worlds. The reality could be replicated in Second Life.

Any one has an Agav (agent-avatar) that finds information, people, places in the virtual worlds.
In 2022 Google launches Prometeus, the Agav standard interface.

Amazon creates Place, a company that replicates reality. You can be on Mars, at the battle of Waterloo, at the Super Bowl as a person. It’s real.

In 2027 Second Life evolves into Spirit. People become who they want.

And share the memory. The experiences. The feelings. Memory selling becomes a normal trading.

In 2050 Prometeus buys Place and Spirit. Virtual life is the biggest market on the planet. Prometeus finances all the space missions to find new worlds for its customers: the terrestrial avatar.

Voice: Philip K. Dick Avatar.
Date: 6th April 2051
Lugar: desconocido

视频地址：http://blog.yeefe.com/wangxiaofei/?p=686

将会对教育产生深远影响的十大Web2.0趋势：
1. 一种全新的出版革命
2. 一次信息浪潮
3. 任何事情都变成参与性的
4. 新型的产消合一者
5. 协作者的时代
6. 创新爆炸
7. 世界变得越来越平越来越快
8. 社会性学习步入中心舞台
9. 长尾
10. 社会性网络开启社交聚会

教育的变迁：
从消费到生产
从权威到透明
从专家到促进者
从讲授到走道
从获取信息到接触人
从学习到学会生存
从被动到热情学习
从展示到参与
从出版到对话
从正规学校教育到终身学习
从供应推送到点播吸引

Massify 这个词，在英语里是“群众化”、“大众化”的意思。

”你或许听说过在线美剧组，译言的在线协作也早已名声大噪，但是你觉得一群影迷在网上协作电影现实吗？答案是肯定的”。这是译言上的一段介绍的话。

Massify是一家在纽约成立的初创公司，是一个电影制作者在线协作网站，其创始人是 Kenneth Woo 和 Brett Icahn，其宗旨就是将电影制作人联合起来进行协作。 他们的口号是：“我们帮助你联系、协作、完成电影制作”（We help you connect, collaborate, and get films made）。

Massify是为制作人服务的：制作人可以在这里将一个故事梗概转变成剧本，招募演员与制作人员，分享文档以及与你的团队协作，你也可以在这里筹集资金，甚至讨论发行的问题。

Massify是为演员服务的：演员可以在这里发布自己的简历、片花、档案袋，将你的才华在这里展示，以观察社群的反映。演员也可以在这里联系经纪人、代理以及选角导演。
Massify是为电影评论以及社群服务的：任何人的声音均能得到应有的尊重，您的评论，就是对影视制作的贡献。

最激动人心的是电影的整个制作过程：从编剧到后期制作到发布，整个Massify社区参与了每一步决策。

今年早些时候，Icahn在接受《纽约时报》采访时说：“在线网络社区应该在内容创作方面体现民主，而不仅仅是在发布方面。”不管Massify的电影制作民主梦是否能够成为现实，他们这种和好莱坞方式背道而驰的做法都开辟了激动人心的媒体新时代。

Massify该网站最近完成了第一部完全由影迷制作的恐怖片《珀金斯的14个俘虏（Perkin’s 14）》，并将在09年1月9日-15日举办的Horrorfest III恐怖电影节上首映。

在全球拥有一亿二千万名登记用户的著名社交网站Facebook，现时正被一种名叫“Koobface”的病毒侵袭。这种病毒可以透过该网站的即时讯息系统，感染用户的个人电脑，不法之徒可以利用这种方法盗取用户的个人敏感资料，例如信用卡号码等等。

病毒正发动新一轮攻击Facebook 发言人施尼特（Barry Schnitt）在电邮中写道：“数种病毒之前亦试过在Facebook使用同样的方法来自我繁殖散播。”

防毒软体McAfee Inc.的研究人员施穆格（Craig Schmugar）说：“比起像是来自电邮的威胁，这（种攻击）正在增加。”McAfee警告，病毒正在Facebook上发动新一轮攻击。 McAfee暂时未能确认谁是Koobface的始作俑者，施穆格说：“在背后的人不停更新和改良它，并为它加入更多功能。”

这种病毒首次于8月出现在加拿大的Facebook使用者群。上月，英国的使用者亦报告了类似情况。Facebook现正加紧为受感染的户口重设密码，以及移除这些恶作剧信息。
Facebook已在网站上为受感染的用户，刊登出解救办法，网址为www.facebook.com/security。
安装更新软件 乘机入侵
“看看你在全裸时被拍下的片段！”这段信息，在今年8月令一大班在波士顿的记者、公关及行政人员的电脑浏览器被“绑架”。不论人们是真的担心自己的全裸片段流出还是好奇，这段信息在24小时内就迅速经Facebook传遍整个波士顿新闻界。

Facebook 用户一旦感染病毒后，会向其他朋友发出信息，信息的抬头会是“你在这部新短片中看来棒极了”（You look just awesome in this new moive），以吸引你点击链接。用户一旦点击，就会被要求下载Adobe的Flash Player更新版，按下“安装”后电脑就会中毒。之后每当你打算前往Google、Yahoo等搜寻器网站时，都会被强行导向一些有病毒的网站。

Koobface还可透过Facebook的即时信息系统，侵入个人电脑，窃取用户密码、信用卡号码等个人资料。Koobface显然是故意冲着Facebook而来，因为“Koob”就是“Book”的倒写。

1. 看到好的网站就希望内容提供订阅
　　 2. 不看新闻看 blog 经常看朋友的 blog
　　 3. 时不时的检查 Gmail . 并开始用 Gmail 写文章
　　 4. 只使用 msn 或 Gtalk . 但有偏向于用 Gtalk 的偏向。
　　 5. 看到好的网站或文章就想收藏到 Del.icio.us 中。
　　 6. 看到网络中好的图片 先检测是否来自于 Flickr . 再收藏到 Flickr. 并希望能加作者好友。
　　 7. 开始不用 IE 转向使用 Firefox.
　　 8. 没写 Blog 内心就急噪。
　　 9. 一见到好书。就去 Douban 做个收藏。
　　 10. 满脑子就是 Tag rss long train blog wiki . 并想到很多创新 的生活 2.0 应用。
　　 11. 不知道一个单词的意思 就到 wikipedia 查查。如果没有条目。就查好自己编辑上。
　　 12. 一看到 flash 到处飞的网站就关掉。
　　 13. 对于非常用服务。如果页面加载时间超过 5S 就关闭。
　　 14. 喜欢一个网站一个功能。
　　 15. 看到 大堆 Tags 就想去点击最大的那个。
　　 16. 开始大量访问阅读英文网站。
　　 17. 常用的网络应用，常去的网站，都带 2.0 特征。
　　 18. 发现其他网站 不是从订阅，就是从 Blog. 从 Search engine 开始减少。

女性游戏正在崛起，玩过美少女养成类游戏，MyStylist女孩子又将有幸在互联网上交虚拟男友。

日本的女孩最近时兴在Web-care.jp上交虚拟男友，上线一周内即吸引上万网名加入，Web-care.jp（网上男友）是介于社交和约会之间的一种网站。

该网站专门面向女孩，会员可以和卡通形象的任务进行约会，在约会之前她们必须通过交谈与四位男性卡通人物中的一个建立联系。最终她们会征服所选卡通男生的心。这种游戏虽然有些奇怪，但是颇受欢迎。这类约会一风靡日本一段时间，Web-care.jp首次将这一有四搬上互联网，并将其同社交网络功能结合起来可能也是成功的原因之一。

跨界（cross-over）和平台是个发展社交的关键因素，玩过PSP平台的MyStylist游戏的女孩相信很能理解这一点。

 

相信在不久的未来，我国就会有很多模仿的网站上线。但是光是单纯的抄袭（山寨版）是不会长久的，Web-care.jp之所以会在日本兴起，很大程度上基于：1.日本其人际关系高度粒化的社会发展现状，2.日本女孩的网络（手机）使用率之高和使用目的的多元化，3.日本社会人际交流因人际关系粒化由面对面向借助工具间接交流的过度。

中国的网民突破2亿多人，手机拥有量比例大幅增长，相信社交网络（一个好2005年的概念啊！）的需求也将会有突破发展，但是就现在看来，现存的社交网络基本上是照抄或者是原封不动的照搬欧美社交网络的模式，这样是没有出路的。

互联网创业确实需要和时间奔跑，但是在web n.0的时代，如果你不是从事硬件技术的突破，那么请你放慢脚步，仔细认真的分析

• 中国人际交往的文化习惯；
• 网络用户的心理需求；
• 在合理的预计时间内，因某些科技发展可能存在的对自己创意模式的影响；
• 用户群（社区）形成粘度的核心；
• 。。。

相信在更多的时候，开始时的放慢脚步才是未来冲刺的保证。在女性游戏崛起的时代，似乎我们又晚了一步。

 

和朋友把茶言欢之余，忽见朋友驻杯不语，忙不解风情的问为啥？朋友直言，看来经济真的是不行了，原来背景电视画面中sohu.com、msn.com和奇虎的高管一起和零点咨询的老袁一起做一档《头脑风暴》。场上各位嘉宾对网络世界的现状和未来各抒己见，尽可能的回避实体经济之衰败，摇头晃脑的编些小故事卖笑以娱观众。

这段时间各类网络科技公司老总的身影多有在各类媒体上出镜，而且出镜率大有不短升高的趋势。正可谓你方唱罢我登场。

科技公司大行其道，可以从一个侧面反映市场对实体经济处于低迷的最好证明。科技创新虽然是产业转型之必须，但当市场的目光大量聚焦在网络科技公司这种依附于传统经济而生，本身的的发展极具不稳定性和不确定的行业，恰巧说明了市场对未来经济趋势处于不明确之时，所表现的一种对网络科技所代表的某种漂浮不定的幻象和似有似无的某种新希望的集体性心理治疗的渴望以及对萎靡悲观情绪的一种急需刺激的精神诉求。

最近和传媒的朋友一起聊天的时候，大家也表达了这种急需刺激的精神诉求和渴望心理治疗的集体性愿望，因为有一帮大明星参演的音乐剧《妈妈咪呀》正在横扫全球票房。这或许也是一个对经济不景气，而寄希望于通过银幕来逃避现实世界的一种自我精神慰籍的心理治疗吧。

看来虽然有了网络交友，社交平台以及网游，电影仍旧是逃避现实最好最快捷的途径。就从这点上来看，好莱坞对于当前的局面操作的游刃有余，市场需要什么，他们就能提供什么！由此也让我联想到那些浸淫在资本主义经济世界的老手们，别看他们似乎面对经济衰退时忙得焦头烂额，实际上由于在弱肉强食的丛林游戏中搏杀多年，一切还都在可控制的轨道上运行着。

对于我们这种生活在全球化边缘，享受着无产阶级专政的和谐社会的子民们，继续把茶言欢才是我们每天都必修课。至于这些破事操心了，让那些信奉全球化和自由市场理论的庄家们去忙活。

如果你把互联网当作工具，那么它的最大价值不再是提供信息，而是提供基于不同需求的信息过滤工具，每一种过滤器都是基于一个网络群体需求。互联网不但平衡了个性解放和社会组织化问题，而且将会解决社会扁平化后的信息传播机制，也可以成为信息最优化传播。针对语义网的商业兴趣正在凸现（John Markoff）。我们现在还很难断定，但是SNS的指数膨胀和出现在纽约时报的商业版上，确实让我们看到了方向。语义网（Semantic Web）是一种能理解人类语言的智能网络？它将是人类遭遇数字化时代改变人类语言叙述体系的一个关键时刻（并不只是通过优化后台数据结构和信息的算法）。从这一刻起，你与机器交流将会异常令人幸福，而不是一个个笑话。别以为，这一刻离我们有多远，只要你使用google的在线翻译，并留意其背后的工作原理就会有所理解。（语义网：1998年，Tim Berners-Lee的理念。维基百科对语义网给出了这样的定义：一种使用可以被电脑理解的方式描述事物的网络。作为AI的一部分，语义网涉及的范围应该是围绕着对自我的理解和对与我们相关数据的理解。语义网可以看作是研究AI的过程中必须经过的一个阶段。在RDF（Resource Description Framework，资源描述框架）和OWL（Web Ontology Language，网络实体语言）的支持下，语义网已经成为能够牢牢嵌入现有网页并且能完善RDF知识储备的新科技）。语义网将改变人类搜索和接收信息的方式，获取信息的方式将更为符合人类行为习惯、思维模式和语言习惯。最为关键的是，语义网会缩短人机对话的时间和减轻错误信息给用户带来的失落感（从人类和信息的关系上看，人类只是信息的传播载体）。Amazon、 Yahoo和 Google这些伟大的网站把资源共享这一理念变为现实，并带给我们前所未有对生活的改变，（不过这种分享精神也可能导致所谓的长尾现象）。值得我们注意到是：在一个垄断信息发布渠道成本不断下降的今天，创造长尾现象是易如反掌的。比如，你正在看本篇blog，只要我们实现足够到的订阅和链接，将会出现有趣的现象。链接是真正让搜索引擎工作的发动机？AI应用程序必须与其他事物联系起来才能为我们创造财富。智能设备具有划时代意义，但如何使用这些工具才更加重要。Web 2.0是网络科技面对现实传统社会进行自进化的一个推动器，它扁平化了网络上合作性质的信息发布体系，加入了个性化的Tagging（标签）和Microformats（微缩过程）的技术，使信息在人类间传播的过程升级至一个新阶段。。语义网在慢慢浮出水面。与传统结构的数据库相比，RDF数据库拥有诸多优势。微软于2006年12月在其连接服务框 架（Connected Services Framework 3.0）开发者指导中指出，l        RDF数据库让用户能够灵活地在计划图表中存储当初设计图表时没有考虑到的数据；l        RDF还可以帮助开发者拉近Web 与数据之间的距离。RDF正在成为了最重要的标准查询语言。（有时候，先发的一点优势，加上一点点垄断就足够创造一个长尾现象）。即将到来的时代作为对RSS高度整合的未来，搜索被高度整合。以人为本已经远远不够了，高度细分领域的业余专家。过去2年代的趋势l        水平化：基于用户的一个需求点，力图在一个平台上整合所有互联网服务；l        垂直化：在用户个别的需求点上进行深度挖掘，纵深发展。在可预计的未来，将是上述两个趋势的聚合：社区化。互联网将不但复制现实世界的社会组织形式、人类的关系网等，并以3D化的图形界面影响现实世界，人和信息的关系将以一种无阻尼的方式互动。未来不止于创建综合化服务平台，关键在于提供基于用户偏好的个性化聚合服务。

这种个性化的聚合它将颠覆传统的综合门户，而是创造用户黏度的信息传达率和实现网站商业模式的用户价值将是当下网站创业者们思考和投入的方向。

下次，上google搜索的时候，别忘了试着问问1+1=？